With the World Meteorological Organization forecasting a possibly strong El Nino, Bangladeshi experts are warning of a higher risk of drought and heatwaves. Speaking to Samakal ahead of International Day for Disaster Risk Reduction on Tuesday (13 October), they said the country must move beyond relief and rehabilitation to early preparation, risk reduction and timely planning for farming and water.
Professor A K M Saiful Islam, director of the Institute of Water and Flood Management at BUET, said El Nino could raise the risk of dry spells, drought and heat, though floods and strong cyclones remain possible. When heat and drought come together, he said, crop output suffers; water shortages push up irrigation demand and farmers' production costs, which can end up in food prices. Shifting temperature and rainfall can also raise the risk of mosquito-borne diseases such as dengue and malaria, and of waterborne disease.
Dr Mohon Kumar Das, executive director of the Hydro-Climate and Ocean Centre, said a study of five coastal districts using data from 1951 to 2017 found maximum temperatures in El Nino years were on average about 0.5 degrees Celsius higher than in normal years. Once an El Nino is forecast, he said, farming and water management should be planned ahead, with regional weather and monsoon forecasts watched closely.
Dr Samarendra Karmakar, a former director of the Bangladesh Meteorological Department, said rainfall in El Nino years is often erratic, light in some areas and excessive in others. Heavy rain in the Himalayan foothills and upstream basins can send the Brahmaputra, Ganges and Meghna up together and cause major floods even in an El Nino year. He called for more effective seasonal forecasts of rain, floods and drought, so that farmers can be warned early if drought or extreme heat is likely in March, April or May.
The experts said disaster management in Bangladesh is still relief-centred, and that people at risk must be part of planning, with better coordination among agencies, local preparedness and early warning. Disaster Management and Relief Minister Asadul Habib Dulu told the paper that the Bay of Bengal coast, countless rivers, climate change and population pressure make Bangladesh one of the most disaster-prone regions in the world.
This year's theme for the day is "Start at home, build a disaster-resilient country". The ministry has planned the main event at the Bangladesh-China Friendship Conference Centre in Dhaka, with programmes in divisions, districts and upazilas.
Source: Samakal
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