A shortage of fertiliser has appeared in almost every part of the country, leaving farmers in difficulty. What the government holds in stock is less than demand. The Department of Agricultural Extension (DAE) says there are flaws in the supply system but no real crisis. People involved in the sector believe a special syndicate is creating problems with fertiliser to embarrass the interim government.

Reports in various media say there is a shortage of TSP, DAP and MOP fertiliser in Chuadanga, Kushtia, Magura, Rajshahi, Rangpur, Kurigram, Nilphamari and other districts. Farmers cannot get more than 10kg per bigha from dealers. According to farmers, however, fertiliser is available if they pay more than the government-set price. Traders and dealers have created an artificial shortage, and the price has risen by Tk 5-6 a kg as a result.

Fertiliser is one of the main inputs in farming, and demand peaks in the rice-growing season. There is therefore heavy demand in the current Aman season, but farmers in several districts complain they cannot get as much as they need. Fertiliser, too, is being manipulated.

Dealers, for their part, deny any artificial shortage. They say the amount they are allocated is far below local farmers' demand, and the shortage has worsened because demand is higher during Aman. The DAE has rejected the idea of a crisis altogether. Its position is that current stocks exceed what Aman requires; the government has also moved to import more fertiliser, and the administration is acting on scattered complaints of shortages at retail level. The question is: if there are enough stocks, why the need for fresh imports? Surely the accounts do not add up here either.

A shortage even at retail level is unwelcome in an important farming season. The administration should have stepped up monitoring from the start. Now there is an attempt to cover up the problem. What the government and dealers say does not match reality in the field, and the picture of a crisis is clear. The government must act without delay to ensure fertiliser supply meets need.

Rice is the country's staple food, and a large share of the supply comes from the Aman season, about 35 per cent of total rice production. Aman plays an important role in food security. Economists fear that if the fertiliser crisis is not resolved, Aman production will fall, which could affect the wider economy and food security. It is in no way acceptable for this season's output to be hurt or for food security to be put at risk because of a fertiliser shortage. Emergency measures must be taken now.

Fertiliser is one of the key inputs for Aman because the weather is comparatively more uncertain at this time. Correct application, according to soil fertility, weather and variety, has a direct effect on yield. Fertiliser is needed within a few days of transplanting seedlings from the seedbed, and again at particular stages of growth. If farmers do not get enough at these times, production is at risk.

If Aman output falls this year, farmers will lose out, and the wider economy will be affected. High inflation is already a major strain, and people have no financial relief because of high prices. A smaller Aman crop would reduce rice supply and push up market prices. Because of floods, Aman production in FY2024-25 was lower than in FY2023-24, and the effect was seen in the market; food inflation was high then too. If Aman output falls again, food inflation could rise.

According to the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, food inflation in July was 7.56 per cent. The monthly Economic Update of the Planning Commission's General Economics Division (GED) says rice alone accounted for 51.55 per cent of food inflation in July. The price of rice therefore remains a major concern for both food and overall inflation. If rice production falls short, overall inflation will rise. And if the government imports rice to increase supply, it will put pressure on foreign exchange. Although the downward trend in dollar inflows has been overcome, the risk remains, and the reserve situation has not improved much.

The complaints of a fertiliser shortage point to weaknesses in the supply system and a lack of monitoring. The Bangladesh Agricultural Development Corporation (BADC) and the Bangladesh Chemical Industries Corporation (BCIC) license fertiliser dealers across the country; together they have more than 7,100 approved dealers. Those responsible must keep strict watch so that dealers cannot create an artificial shortage, and must make sure farmers can buy fertiliser at a fair price.

For this it is not enough to put up price lists or check receipt books. Regular drives must be carried out in the field. Wherever there are complaints of a shortage, swift administrative action must follow and those accused must be punished. Cancelling the licences of accused dealers is also important, to set an example to others. Dealers must be made accountable and the distribution process must be transparent.

Timely imports are also needed to keep the supply chain intact. The government reportedly usually imports fertiliser in June with the Aman season in mind. This reflects bureaucratic sluggishness and weak policy. Such indifference to importing a key farm input is unacceptable, especially when several fertiliser factories have had production disrupted by a lack of gas. The government must solve the current crisis and make sure such a situation does not arise again.

The writer is a journalist.

Source: Jagonews24. First published in Bengali on The Agro News.