The strengthening El Niño is expected to intensify global heat and significantly change rainfall patterns in October-December 2026, raising the risk of both droughts and floods, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said in its Global Seasonal Climate Update released on 8 October.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said there is a near-100% likelihood that El Niño will last through February 2027 and that it could become one of the strongest events recorded since at least 1950. The Niño 3.4 index, which tracks sea-surface temperature anomalies in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific, rose from an average 1.6°C above normal in June to 2.5°C in August. For October-December it is forecast at about 3.7°C above normal, peaking around December, which would beat the previous record of 2.6°C set in November 2015-January 2016. The forecast is a consensus of 13 national and international climate prediction centres.
WMO sees an overwhelming likelihood of above-average temperatures across large parts of the world in October-December, raising the chance of heat extremes, though not every place will be hotter every day.
Rainfall is expected to shift substantially. Wetter than normal conditions are forecast over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, the Greater Horn of Africa, parts of Central Asia and coastal East Asia, the northern Arabian Peninsula, parts of North America south of 45°N and southeastern South America. Drier conditions are forecast over the western Pacific and equatorial Atlantic, through parts of the South Pacific to southern South America, and below-normal rainfall is expected over the Indian subcontinent, southern Central America, parts of the Caribbean and northwestern South America.
A positive Indian Ocean Dipole is forecast to peak in October before declining. WMO said national meteorological services are stepping up preparedness and briefing governments and humanitarian agencies. For farmers planning winter crops, the outlook points to less rain and more heat over the region in the coming months.
The report was written by Rajasree Singh for Rural Voice.
Photo: NOAA / Wikimedia Commons (public domain)
Source: Rural Voice
Comments
(0)