The sun is out over the haor today, but farmers still see darkness. The hope of the boro season in late April has sunk again after a few days of heavy rain, upstream flash floods and swollen rivers. The report that paddy worth about Tk 200 crore has gone under water in the haor region is not just a story of one area's farm disaster; it raises direct questions about Bangladesh's food security, market stability and policymaking.

Boro is not just a crop in Bangladesh but the backbone of the food economy. More than half of the country's rice comes from this season. In the haors of Sylhet division, where land yields a single crop, boro is the only support of farmers' lives and livelihoods. Even a small disruption there can have an impact nationally and becomes a disaster locally. This year's situation is somewhat complicated.

Early in the season the prospects for a good yield were strong, but bad weather at the end has eroded them. According to the Department of Agricultural Extension (DAE), a significant area of land was at risk of flooding, and much has already gone under water. The loss may not be large as a share of total output, perhaps 1 to 2 per cent, but in economic reality the impact runs deeper than the numbers.

The biggest question now is the effect on the price of rice. By the normal rules of economics, prices rise when output falls. But Bangladesh's rice market does not depend on a single source. In northern districts such as Naogaon, Rajshahi, Bogura and Joypurhat, the boro harvest starts a little later, and a good yield there could partly make up for the haor loss. The next 10 to 15 days are therefore critical. A large price rise before the whole crop is in is relatively unlikely.

However, the psychological effect, or "expectation shock", often creates price pressure before any real shortage. If traders believe supply will fall, they may build up stocks, creating an artificial crisis.

Government stocks are a major factor. Public warehouses now hold a significant amount of rice, about 13 lakh tonnes. Used efficiently, these stocks could keep the market supplied and ease much of the pressure on prices. The problem is that in Bangladesh stocks often fail to reach the market on time, or distribution is hampered by inefficiency and corruption.

The international market must also be considered. Although the global rice market is relatively stable, production costs have risen because of the energy crisis, disruption to fertiliser supplies and geopolitical tension. If domestic output comes under pressure, dependence on imports may grow, which would in turn put pressure on foreign exchange.

The key question is what the government will do to prevent price instability. First, it must ensure quick and effective paddy procurement. Often the government is slow to buy at the fixed price, or farmers do not benefit directly because of complex procedures, and are forced to sell to middlemen at low prices. This must not happen this time. Paddy must be bought directly from farmers through a transparent and simple process.

Second, affected farmers need immediate financial help and incentives. Haor farmers depend on a single crop; losing it means losing a year's income. If they lack capital to farm again, next season's output will also be at risk. Cash support, low-interest loans and seed and fertiliser support are urgent.

Market monitoring must also be stepped up. Manipulation in the rice market is nothing new, and hoarders create artificial crises whenever they can. The government must keep strict watch so that no one builds up stocks unreasonably, and if necessary use mobile courts, fines and cancellation of licences.

Quick drying and infrastructure support must also be increased. Much paddy has been cut during this rain but is at risk of rotting because it cannot be dried. Arranging rapid drying through public warehouses, rice mills and temporary dryers could prevent a great deal of loss.

We must look at long-term solutions. Almost every year the haor region faces the same situation, with crops lost to early floods or sudden flash floods. Sustainable embankments, water management and better early warning systems could reduce this loss considerably. In reality, irregularities, corruption and delays in building embankments keep the problem alive. Every year, after the loss, relief and assistance are used to manage the situation, but the root cause remains unresolved. This is not only an economic failure but a reflection of weak policymaking.

It is also time to think again about introducing crop insurance. Insurance for farmers hit by natural disasters would greatly reduce their risk. Although crop insurance has been discussed in Bangladesh for a long time, implementation remains limited.

How far prices will be affected is still not entirely clear. What can be said is that if the north has a good harvest and the government takes timely, effective action, a big national price rise can be avoided. But if management falls short, even a small production shortfall can turn into a major crisis. The haor farmer today is fighting not only a natural disaster but a system in which they are always hit hardest yet protected least. Unless this changes, paddy will go under water every year, farmers will weep and uncertainty will hang over the market.

The writer is National Associate and Country Representative (Bangladesh), ISHR.

Source: Jagonews24. First published in Bengali on The Agro News.