Heading into the autumn 2026 and spring 2027 application windows, US ag retailers must weigh how much risk they will carry in storing fertilizer at their outlets. 'Some retailers got their wings clipped buying some high-priced nitrogen as the market unfolded this spring only to have the market not fully develop,' said George Secor, chief executive of Sunrise Cooperative in Fremont, Ohio; with elemental sulphur priced where it is and phosphorus retailing above US$1,000 a ton, 'many retailers just will not stomach the risk'.

Mark Dietsch, crop nutrients sales manager at GROWMARK, suggests a three-step approach: fill storage as far as possible ahead of disruptions, forecast supply plans early with growers to lock in volume, and be honest with them about pricing and constraints. 'Fall 2026 is the critical window,' said Rory Olerud, chief executive of AgriPartners in South Dakota; those who wait 'are likely to find themselves competing for scarce product on a spot market that penalizes late arrivals severely'.

Rail is a worry. Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern agreed in July 2025 to merge into a 50,000-route-mile transcontinental railroad; more than 60% of US fertilizer moves by rail year-round, according to The Fertilizer Institute, much of it potash from Canada, whose railways ship about 69,000 tons of fertilizer a day. 'Concentrated market power in the hands of fewer people for our products does not work out in favor of good business,' said Daren Coppock of the Agricultural Retailers Association. The railroads have offered the Surface Transportation Board expanded gateway pricing, preserved Class I options for three-to-two shippers, temporary alternative access if service slips and a rate-relief process.

Overseas, the Iranian conflict in spring effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, through which Dietsch says nearly half of global urea exports and about 30% of ammonia exports pass each year: 'when shipping gets disrupted there, it impacts fertilizer availability worldwide'. At home, the river system on which much fertilizer moves has swung from low water in recent years to high water this spring, with big effects on transit times.

'The transportation disruptions of spring 2026 were not a one-time event,' Olerud said. 'They revealed deep structural vulnerabilities in the global fertilizer supply chain that have not been resolved' — which is why, for retailers, early procurement, storage investment, diversified logistics and grower communication will decide who can serve customers in spring 2027.

Source: CropLife