An abundance of manufacturing beef in the United States will put further pressure on New Zealand farmgate bull beef prices in the coming months, AgriHQ senior analyst Mel Croad said. US imported beef prices have been falling for months, and the pressure will grow now that President Donald Trump has granted tariff-free access for 300,000 tonnes of imported beef.

The access runs for only 90 days and will be filled mainly by countries in the 'other countries' tariff-rate quota such as Brazil and Paraguay, Ms Croad said. Since the start of the year the US price for imported 95CL beef has fallen from around US$4 a pound to $3.42, and it has come back faster in the past fortnight.

The easing has not yet reached New Zealand farmgate values in full. The North Island bull price peaked at $9.95/kg in August and was $9.70 this week, the South Island slightly lower on fewer bulls; farmgate prices will realign with the US market when cattle start flowing into processing plants later in spring, she said.

The uncertainty created by the US decision is more damaging than the volume itself: allowing tariff-free beef in just as US demand seasonally eases sends a confusing signal. Supplying 300,000 tonnes in a 90-day window will be hard, especially as Brazil turns to reopening quota markets such as China, and the full amount may not be used.

With dairy calving ending, most bull calves reaching 100 kg between October and December will be sold to beef finishers at contracted prices; later-born, non-contracted calves may see weaker demand as the beef price shifts.

Source: Farmers Weekly NZ