Conversations in South African farming are turning to the 2026-27 season, which opens in mid-October on a more uncertain path than usual, according to an Agricultural Business Chamber (Agbiz) weekly outlook carried by FarmingPortal. The unresolved war between the United States and Iran and the constraints on the Strait of Hormuz keep pushing input costs up: at the end of August local fertiliser prices were on average 20% above a year earlier, and with Brent crude above US$100 a barrel diesel could rise further. Russian attacks on Ukrainian export infrastructure add pressure on grain prices for a wheat-importing country.

Weather is the other worry. An El Niño is expected, though high soil moisture may give the season a good start; roughly 80% of the grain crop is rain-fed, while commercial fruit and vegetables are irrigated. The livestock sector is exposed too: in drought, feed becomes the constraint and farmers cull, but foot-and-mouth disease has closed most of South Africa's usual beef export markets, leaving only a few in the Middle East — so the outlook urges the Department of Agriculture to reopen markets now, especially those that accept vaccinated animals, rather than in 2027 when culling may already be under way.

Machinery already shows the strain: tractor sales have fallen for four consecutive months to 606 units in August 2026, down 13% on a year earlier, and combine sales were down 20%, according to the South African Agricultural Machinery Association, after a long run of strong sales and as the replacement cycle slows.

Yet the current season is strong. The Crop Estimates Committee puts the 2025-26 summer grain and oilseed harvest at 21.6 million tonnes, up 5%, with maize at a record 17.4 million tonnes; farmers had delivered 14.6 million tonnes of maize to commercial silos in the first 19 weeks of the marketing year, soybean deliveries reached 2.8 million tonnes against a 3.01 million-tonne crop, and maize exports could reach 3.0 million tonnes this marketing year, up from 2.4 million. Agricultural exports reached US$4.1 billion in the second quarter, up 10%, and US$7.8 billion in the first half, up 11%, led by citrus, apples and pears, maize, wine and nuts.

Agricultural value added grew only 0.3% in the second quarter after a delayed field-crop season pushed deliveries into the third quarter, but the Agbiz/IDC Agribusiness Confidence Index rose eight points to 53, back above the neutral mark. Winter wheat remains the weak spot: the 2026-27 area planted is the lowest in nearly a century and Western Cape weather has been unfavourable, while 2025-26 wheat imports are expected to reach 1.85 million tonnes.

Source: FarmingPortal