Brazil's fertiliser market is being squeezed from three sides at once — geopolitical disruption, tighter credit and constrained logistics — and buyers are responding by bringing purchases forward and favouring product that has already cleared import and is sitting in the country. The pressure is sharpest in phosphates.

"We are living through a perfect storm involving commercialization and delivery, geopolitics and credit," said Rafael Almeida, director of the trading house AgriConnection Fertilizers. "Those who postponed purchases may face higher prices, but also a lack of availability and logistical windows to receive the product." Data from the Brazilian fertiliser distributors' association Anda show deliveries to the domestic market fell 5.4 per cent in the first half of 2026, to 19.02 million tonnes from 20.11 million a year earlier.

Phosphorus is the pinch point because, unlike nitrogen, it has few substitutes. Almeida estimates that about 60 per cent of the world's sulfur — the feedstock for phosphoric acid and hence MAP, SSP and TSP — passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Higher raw-material costs have idled some phosphate plants in Minas Gerais and Goiás, and China this year suspended exports of certain binary phosphate fertilisers, narrowing Brazil's options further. In Mato Grosso, production costs have already risen.

Traders are widening their sourcing: AgriConnection is buying purified MAP from Morocco, potassium chloride from Canada and ammonium sulfate from China, and has prioritised fertiliser already nationalised in Brazil, at times taking positions early to lock in supply. Nitrogen is shifting too: with Middle East conflict cutting urea availability, demand has moved to Chinese ammonium sulfate, which now leads the company's nitrogen volume. "A reduction in urea imports does not necessarily mean a shortage of nitrogen," Almeida said. "What we are seeing is a change in the matrix."

The federal government is trying to reduce the country's medium-term dependence. The Fertilizer Industry Development Program (Profert), created by Law 15,496/26, took effect on 4 September and sets a minimum share of domestically produced synthetic and mineral fertiliser in commercial blends — 2 per cent from July 2027, rising to 10 per cent by 2037.

AgriConnection, which links international and domestic suppliers with Brazilian growers through a back-to-back trading model, moved 130,000 tonnes worth about R$250 million (US$48.5 million) in 2025, its first full year, and had reached about 106,000 tonnes in deliveries and contracted sales by early September; it projects revenue growth of 20–25 per cent this year on higher prices and a larger phosphate share. The report was edited by Leonardo Gottems of AgroPages.

Source: AgroPages