Hopes that Europe's late-season drought would lift grain prices are being dashed, according to the UK's Agricultural and Horticultural Development Board (AHDB). The UK November 2026 feed wheat future fell £2.75/t, or 1.3%, to £209.75/t in the trading week that ended on Friday, September 11.

Global markets closed the week lower after the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) published its monthly supply and demand report on the Friday. December 2026 Paris wheat futures lost 2.1% over the week, while December Chicago wheat and Chicago maize futures each fell 1.2%.

Speculative traders had bought heavily ahead of the report; when it landed, they sold to bank profits. The USDA cut its forecast of the 2026 US maize crop by 5.4 million tonnes to 401.3 million tonnes because of summer heat, but the resulting drop in 2026/27 US maize stocks was smaller than the market had expected. An unexpected rise in the forecast of global wheat stocks at the end of 2026/27 — now 276.3 million tonnes, 3.0 million tonnes more than in August, largely on bigger crop estimates for Australia and Canada — also pushed prices down.

Earlier in the week, prospects of talks between Russia and Ukraine had weighed on prices, though further air strikes on key infrastructure and evidence of continued disruption to Black Sea trade limited the effect.

Oilseeds came under pressure too after a surprise increase in the USDA's US soyabean crop estimate and a smaller-than-expected cut to US stocks, which triggered selling by speculators. For most of the week prices had been underpinned by the conflicts in the Middle East and the Black Sea — nearby Brent crude futures pushed above $100 a barrel for the first time since May and closed Friday at $104.61, up 8.7% on the week — and by China's continued buying of US soyabeans, estimated by Reuters at a further 1.0 million tonnes last week.

Richard Halleron reported the market round-up for Agriland.

Source: Agriland