The almond industry enters the new crop year from a solid position, according to a market update from Blue Diamond Growers carried by California Ag Network, thanks in no small part to exports to India. The carry-in of 470.7 million pounds — only 447.1 million of it estimated edible — is down on the prior year and confirms the tightness of supply from one crop to the next, supporting a stable-to-firm outlook.

August shipments totalled 190 million pounds: exports reached 143.2 million pounds, up 31%, while domestic shipments of 46.8 million pounds were 3.3% lower than a year earlier. Six of the last seven months have outpaced the previous year, reflecting strong global demand.

India was the standout, receiving 44.3 million pounds in August, up about 170% from 16.4 million a year earlier — stronger replenishment ahead of the festival season and a normalisation from an unusually low August 2025 — notable at elevated prices and confirming India as the primary outlet for California inshell almonds. Domestic buying slowed and shifted to nearer-term positions as prices rose, but a pipeline of commitments supports shipments in the months ahead.

Harvest is moving fast: August receipts of 401.9 million pounds were 55% ahead of August 2025 because harvest began about two weeks earlier, not because the crop is bigger. Nonpareil and Independence are largely harvested with pollinizer varieties close behind; Nonpareil rejects are the lowest in years though ticking up on a third flight of navel orangeworm, and Independence rejects are higher on brown spot from leaf-footed plant bugs.

Yields in Nonpareil and Independence are variable by region, speculation about smaller kernels is being borne out, and receipts signal a 2026 crop below 2025 as forecast, with continued downward pressure on crop potential to be informed by the pollinizer volumes hullers are beginning to process.

Source: California Ag Network